Reports
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The NBU announced today its reserves rose by 1.7% m-o-m or $532m in April, to $31.7bn (still down 0.4% YTD).
The increase resulted mostly from the central bank’s F/X purchase interventions as the effects of the revaluation of non-USD denominated reserves, change in the gold holdings and volume of government F/X operations were relatively small. -
The NBU reported it has purchased $0.5bn from the F/X market since the beginning of March, which implies net purchase intervention of $350m in the first two weeks of April, up from $153m in March. This pushed NBU reserves higher, to an est. $31.5bn, up 1.4% from the end-February low but still down 1.0% YTD.
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First Deputy Prime Minister Valeriy Khoroshkovskiy, in a keynote speech at Dragon Capital’s 8th Annual Ukraine Investor Conference in Kyiv yesterday, sent several encouraging signals concerning the government’s intentions to reform domestic stock market infrastructure and deal with deep-seated problems discouraging portfolio investors from Ukraine. He also commented on several closely watched macro topics including negotiations with the IMF, prospective sovereign Eurobond issuance, and gas talks with Russia.
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Several recent developments point to significantly reduced chances for Ukraine’s lending program with the IMF to go back on track before the parliamentary elections scheduled for Oct. 28, which was our central macroeconomic scenario for 2012. Ukraine’s informal negotiations with the Fund have proved fruitless, as the government remains reluctant to hike domestic gas tariffs despite facing strong external and budget funding pressures.
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Feb 27, 2012 download PDF
Ukraine: Q&A on Gas Issues
Reducing the price and consumption of imported Russian gas is currently viewed by markets as Ukraine’s most significant and pressing challenge, with implications ranging from the purely economic (impact on balance of payments, cooperation with the IMF and domestic industrial competitiveness) to broader political concerns (greater Russian dominance after partial divestiture of the strategically important domestic gas pipeline network to Gazprom). With investors continuing to closely watch the Ukraine-Russia gas talks, we have prepared this report to provide our view on various aspects of this vital issue.
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President Viktor Yanukovych today dismissed First Deputy PM Andriy Klyuev and appointed him as secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). Rayisa Bohatyryova, who held the latter post, became deputy PM and health minister. Today’s appointments came less than a month after Yanukovych dismissed Finance Minister Fedir Yaroshenko and appointed State Security Service chief Valeriy Khoroshkovskiy to replace him.
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Feb 06, 2012 download PDF
Dragon Capital: Ukraine's Inflation Starts 2012 at Nine-Year Low of 3.7% y-o-y
Ukraine’s headline inflation inched up by 0.2% m-o-m in January, in line with December’s record, slowing in y-o-y terms to 3.7% from 4.6% in December. Producer prices fell 0.8% m-o-m, decelerating on a y-o-y basis to 11.8% from 14.2% in December.
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Jan 30, 2012 download PDF
Real GDP Grows 5.2% y-o-y in 2011, Matching Our Forecast; We Expect Slowdown to 2.2% in 2012
Ukraine’s real GDP growth slowed to 4.6% y-o-y in 4Q11 from 6.6% in 3Q11, according to provisional data from the State Statistics Committee today. The SSC estimated fourth-quarter GDP was up by 0.6% q-o-q in 4Q11 in seasonally adjusted terms, decelerating from 2.2% q-o-q in 3Q11. Full-year growth thus stood at 5.2% y-o-y (up from 4.2% in 2010), exactly matching our forecast.
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Jan 18, 2012 download PDF
Dragon Capital: Ukraine Industrial Output Slips 0.5% y-o-y in December - Hard Landing, Not Recession, on Agenda
Ukraine’s industrial output growth slipped to negative 0.5% y-o-y in December, from +3.8% in November, bringing the full-year tally to 7.3% y-o-y, vs. 11.2% in 2010.
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Jan 11, 2012 download PDF
Ukrainian Economy in 2012: Facing Slower Growth, Relying on New Gas Deal or IMF
With prospects for the global economy deteriorating, we adopt a more conservative view on key assumptions underlying our macro forecasts for Ukraine, including on steel prices. The geographical breakdown of Ukraine’s exports suggests the country is better positioned to withstand EU troubles than many of its regional peers. The latest forecasts for major importers of Ukraine’s products also suggest growth in “Ukraine-specific” foreign demand will slow moderately, implying a downside risk for the economy but nothing like a 2009-like recession.