Statistics

CURRENT TRENDS (Monthly)

 2016     2017       
 AugSepOctNovDec JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
Real Sector              
Real Ind. Output (% y-o-y)3.40%2.00%0.80%3.70%4.50% 5.60%(4.60%)(2.70%)(6.10%)1.20%3.80%(2.60%)1.20%
Real Ind. Output (cum.; % y-o-y)--------------
Real Agricultural Output (cum.; % y-o-y)-----         
Retail Trade Turnover (cum.; % y-o-y)--------------
Construction (cum.; % y-o-y)--------------
               
Prices              
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)8.40%7.90%12.40%12.10%12.40% 12.60%14.20%15.10%12.20%13.50%15.60%15.90%16.20%
Consumer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)--------------
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)18.90%19.60%29.20%32.00%35.70% 36.80%38.90%38.30%35.60%27.10%26.30%23.30%23.60%
Producer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)--------------
               
External Sector              
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (1.76)(2.70)(2.88)(3.03)(3.45) 0.10(0.19)(0.87)(0.86)(1.08)(1.26)(1.86)(2.08)
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP)-(3.24%)--(3.70%) --(2.96%)--(4.69%)--
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn)(3.32)(3.94)(4.36)(4.78)(5.47) (0.04)(0.57)(0.95)(1.15)(1.60)(2.16)(3.07)(3.63)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn)28.8632.8636.9641.4146.01 3.807.7712.6416.8421.2425.5429.6834.38
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)(8.25%)(7.87%)(6.96%)(5.02%)(3.87%) 41.10%27.88%28.67%23.23%22.74%21.31%19.77%19.13%
Total Imports (cum.; $bn)32.1736.8041.3246.2051.48 3.848.3413.6017.9922.8327.6932.7538.01
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)(0.64%)0.37%0.21%1.64%3.86% 20.65%15.60%18.92%16.86%19.97%20.48%19.84%18.13%
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn)(0.25)(0.80)(0.81)(0.85)(0.93) (0.09)(0.11)(0.70)(0.76)(0.84)(0.76)(0.76)(0.72)
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn)1.812.052.292.602.95 0.240.490.781.051.361.661.972.27
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn)2.293.683.954.024.80 (0.30)(0.04)0.281.251.822.312.623.37
Net FDI Inflow (cum.; $bn)2.653.133.153.253.27 0.100.280.470.630.761.501.631.83
Gross Ext. Debt ($bn)--------------
               
Public Finances              
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn) 2)465.3525.3594.9692.0782.7 72.56142.3220.5323.9408.9496.0567.0667.2
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y) 2)15.47%14.41%16.08%20.16%21.70% 90.30%55.33%34.91%47.83%45.97%46.09%45.74%43.39%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn)476.6556.9621.8702.0837.4 47.54124.3216.5285.3358.4443.8514.2598.5
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y)24.29%27.92%25.74%24.30%22.64% 63.34%52.09%35.66%27.27%26.25%26.52%24.83%25.59%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn) 2)(11.29)(31.69)(26.87)(9.99)(54.68) 25.0217.984.0138.5950.4852.1552.8268.65
               
Debt Indicators              
Total Public Debt ($bn)66.7268.6268.3567.5470.97 71.2171.7672.3574.5574.6875.0276.0676.56
External Public Debt ($bn)44.3646.4046.0445.6645.11 45.2845.1245.2047.2547.3547.7548.2048.12
Debt to IMF ($bn)12.5613.5813.3613.1713.08 13.2213.1713.2014.3414.4814.5514.7314.42
               
Monetary & Banking Indicators              
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn)357.6355.2354.6357.6381.6 362.0361.5356.9368.4368.3381.8379.6379.0
Monetary Base Growth (% y-o-y)8.78%10.58%11.40%11.32%13.56% 8.03%10.03%9.07%9.67%9.14%8.25%7.02%5.97%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn)1,0471,0541,0551,0451,103 1,0661,0601,0751,0891,0891,1031,1151,105
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y)10.44%12.57%9.92%7.72%10.93% 7.10%4.38%6.73%7.22%6.68%6.47%6.77%5.47%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn)983.7988.2982.8983.0997.3 983.3973.2965.2959.2954.3953.9953.4955.8
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y)(4.66%)0.53%(2.87%)(5.05%)1.94% (1.86%)(6.60%)(4.86%)(2.84%)(3.01%)(0.59%)(0.48%)(2.83%)
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn)757.4760.6760.9754.8787.6 770.5767.7783.7790.5787.4795.2803.1795.4
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y)12.79%14.39%11.19%8.32%10.82% 6.65%2.97%6.37%7.36%6.64%6.27%6.98%5.02%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)16.96%16.79%14.16%13.72%16.08% 15.95%15.50%15.79%15.27%15.16%14.72%14.03%14.32%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)10.32%10.55%10.54%9.92%9.99% 9.63%9.54%9.96%9.60%9.21%8.87%8.59%8.65%
               
Forex              
NBU Intervention ($bn)(0.01)(0.13)0.270.08(0.12) (0.08)0.080.130.400.520.300.030.23
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn)14.1015.5915.5115.2715.54 15.4515.4615.1217.1817.6217.9717.8018.04
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports)3.293.633.623.563.62 3.273.283.213.643.743.813.773.82
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p)26.2025.9625.5325.5627.20 27.0527.2027.0526.5926.3226.0025.8025.68
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.)25.1526.2325.7225.7026.34 27.2227.0526.9826.8326.4226.1025.9025.74

Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 8.8bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses, which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates