Statistics

CURRENT TRENDS (Monthly)

	2011										2012
	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Real Sector
Real Ind. Output (% y-o-y)	8.00%	4.90%	8.60%	8.90%	8.70%	9.60%	6.40%	4.70%	3.80%	(0.50%)	2.00%	1.60%	-
Real Ind. Output (% y-o-y cum)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Real Agricultural Output (% y-o-y cum)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Retail Trade Turnover (% y-o-y cum)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Construction (% y-o-y cum)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)	7.70%	9.40%	11.00%	11.90%	10.60%	8.90%	5.90%	5.40%	5.20%	4.60%	3.70%	3.00%	1.90%
Consumer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)	20.30%	20.80%	18.80%	20.00%	20.30%	19.90%	21.30%	16.30%	17.30%	14.20%	11.80%	7.50%	6.50%
Producer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)2)	-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn)	(1.17)	(1.51)	(2.41)	(2.72)	(3.26)	(4.27)	(5.24)	(6.66)	(8.11)	(9.28)	0.41	(0.86)	-
C/A Balance (cum.; % of GDP)	(3.84%)	-	-	(3.98%)	-	-	(4.52%)	-	-	(5.50%)	-	-	-
Merch. Trade Balance (cum.; $bn)	(2.88)	(3.56)	(4.62)	(5.23)	(6.40)	(7.84)	(9.35)	(11.16)	(12.57)	(13.88)	(0.09)	(1.79)	-
Goods Exports (cum.; $bn)	15.60	21.29	27.08	33.33	38.77	44.64	50.72	56.55	62.91	69.47	5.40	10.42	-
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)	133.01%	129.30%	172.64%	170.56%	127.89%	98.78%	94.67%	80.95%	74.78%	65.43%	(78.42%)	(15.81%)	-
Goods Imports (cum.; $bn)	18.48	24.85	31.70	38.56	45.16	52.47	60.07	67.71	75.48	83.35	5.49	12.21	-
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)	49.46%	44.79%	42.85%	42.77%	40.18%	39.61%	38.01%	36.00%	34.43%	33.11%	14.37%	9.93%	-
Services Trade Balance (cum.; $bn)	0.98	1.36	1.89	2.17	2.70	3.39	3.85	4.16	4.47	4.82	0.42	0.75	-
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn)	(0.31)	(0.66)	(1.24)	(1.56)	(1.83)	(2.19)	(2.58)	(2.77)	(3.34)	(3.74)	(0.11)	(0.28)	-
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn)	1.03	1.33	1.60	1.90	2.38	2.64	2.88	3.14	3.38	3.67	0.20	0.47	-
Capital & Financial Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn)	1.92	3.29	4.21	3.76	4.41	5.63	5.03	4.89	5.47	6.55	(1.30)	(0.09)	-
Net FDI Inflow (cum.; $bn)	0.88	1.84	2.76	3.24	3.66	4.60	5.34	5.63	5.89	6.91	0.48	1.31	-

Central Budget3) , 4)
Revenues (cum.; UAH bn)	66.43	89.87	119.05	139.35	168.78	201.83	226.69	251.85	284.22	314.62	21.71	51.80	-
Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y)	28.46%	20.92%	26.87%	24.34%	23.93%	26.21%	26.57%	25.37%	22.66%	22.46%	18.30%	15.89%	-
Expenditures (cum.; UAH bn)	67.33	93.84	120.62	149.74	177.40	207.01	234.91	264.20	295.32	338.04	20.25	47.11	-
Expenditures (cum.; % y-o-y)	17.76%	20.18%	10.63%	8.04%	8.21%	10.26%	9.02%	9.62%	10.39%	10.87%	4.95%	16.10%	-
Balance (cum.; UAH bn)	(0.90)	(3.97)	(1.58)	(10.39)	(8.62)	(5.18)	(8.22)	(12.35)	(11.09)	(23.43)	1.46	4.70	-

Debt Indicators4)
Total Public Debt ($bn)	56.41	58.17	57.81	60.12	-	-	58.38	58.92	-	59.22	59.48	59.21	-
External Public Debt ($bn)	36.13	37.22	36.90	38.23	-	-	38.01	38.20	-	37.47	37.69	37.25	-
Debt to IMF ($bn)	20.28	20.95	20.91	21.95	-	-	20.38	20.73	-	21.74	21.79	21.96	-

Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn)	223.52	229.54	227.90	228.14	235.81	239.89	234.35	234.18	231.06	239.89	229.87	228.54	233.11
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y)	13.67%	14.70%	12.13%	3.93%	5.36%	8.85%	8.13%	5.68%	7.12%	6.29%	3.66%	5.11%	4.29%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn)	621.38	638.44	636.46	652.40	657.01	664.37	662.28	666.35	653.54	685.52	675.02	679.69	688.36
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y)	25.73%	24.98%	22.07%	22.29%	19.25%	19.45%	16.43%	15.68%	13.84%	14.66%	12.29%	12.31%	10.78%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn)	743.16	751.98	758.29	765.00	769.54	781.45	792.91	799.50	793.55	793.28	787.15	790.47	792.02
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y)	6.71%	7.76%	8.88%	9.78%	9.11%	10.09%	10.06%	10.28%	9.16%	9.57%	8.96%	8.29%	6.57%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn)	439.20	450.23	448.10	461.28	459.18	467.03	468.93	474.59	466.14	489.14	487.37	489.76	497.31
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y)	30.00%	28.76%	25.22%	26.78%	22.44%	22.83%	19.34%	18.73%	16.73%	18.19%	15.18%	15.09%	13.23%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)	13.10%	13.00%	13.40%	14.00%	13.90%	14.90%	15.50%	18.70%	18.90%	17.20%	15.60%	15.33%	15.87%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)	6.50%	6.00%	6.40%	6.40%	6.30%	6.50%	7.20%	10.40%	11.50%	11.10%	10.30%	10.52%	9.74%

Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn)	0.25	1.07	0.13	(1.50)	(0.27)	0.32	(1.98)	(1.48)	(0.70)	0.17	(0.89)	(0.11)	0.15
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn)	36.43	38.35	37.92	37.58	37.81	38.19	34.95	34.16	32.41	31.80	31.36	31.05	31.20
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports)	4.46	4.70	4.64	4.60	4.63	4.68	4.28	4.18	3.97	3.89	4.12	4.07	4.09
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p)	7.97	7.96	7.98	7.99	8.00	8.00	8.00	8.01	8.02	8.04	8.03	8.01	8.03
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.)	7.95	7.97	7.99	7.99	7.99	8.00	8.00	8.01	8.02	8.02	8.04	8.02	8.03

Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 12-month rolling average for monthly data and simple average for quarterly; 3)includes state and local budgets, excludes Pension Fund, Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; 4)SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics. Sources: SSC, Finance Ministry, NBU, Dragon Capital estimates

CURRENT TRENDS (Quarterly)

Period	3Q10	4Q10	1Q11	2Q11	3Q11	4Q11
Real Sector
Real GDP (% y-o-y)	3.60%	3.30%	5.40%	3.80%	6.60%	4.60%
Household Consumption (% y-o-y)	9.40%	9.00%	13.80%	15.30%	17.80%	12.80%
Gross Fix. Cap. Formation (% y-o-y)	12.60%	10.60%	2.10%	5.20%	11.00%	16.90%
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)	304.71	310.32	263.55	316.48	387.97	348.60
Nominal GDP ($bn) 1)	38.57	39.12	33.17	39.70	48.67	43.67
Real Ind. Output (% y-o-y)	8.92%	11.23%	10.30%	8.37%	9.30%	3.00%

Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)	10.50%	9.10%	7.70%	11.90%	5.90%	4.60%
Consumer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)2)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)	19.20%	18.70%	20.30%	20.00%	21.30%	14.20%
Producer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)2)	-	-	-	-	-	-
GDP deflator (% y-o-y)

External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn)	(0.51)	(3.02)	(1.17)	(2.72)	(5.24)	(9.28)
C/A Balance (cum.; % of GDP)	(0.45%)	(2.21%)	(3.84%)	(3.98%)	(4.52%)	(5.50%)
Merch. Trade Balance (cum.; $bn)	(4.80)	(8.39)	(2.88)	(5.23)	(9.35)	(13.88)
Goods Exports (cum.; $bn)	36.75	52.19	15.60	33.33	50.72	69.47
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)	65.62%	94.75%	133.01%	170.56%	94.67%	65.43%
Goods Imports (cum.; $bn)	41.55	60.58	18.48	38.56	60.07	83.35
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)	31.56%	29.20%	49.46%	42.77%	38.01%	33.11%
Services Trade Balance (cum.; $bn)	3.58	4.40	0.98	2.17	3.85	4.82
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn)	(1.42)	(2.01)	(0.31)	(1.56)	(2.58)	(3.74)
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn)	2.13	2.98	1.03	1.90	2.88	3.67
Capital & Financial Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn)	7.01	8.05	1.92	3.76	5.03	6.55
Net FDI Inflow (cum.; $bn)	3.59	5.76	0.88	3.24	5.34	6.91
Net FDI Inflow (cum.; % of GDP)

Central Budget3) , 4)
Revenues (cum.; UAH bn)	179.11	256.92	66.43	139.35	226.69	314.62
Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y)	20.29%	22.54%	28.46%	24.34%	26.57%	22.46%
Expenditures (cum.; UAH bn)	215.48	304.89	67.33	149.74	234.91	338.04
Expenditures (cum.; % y-o-y)	24.61%	24.35%	17.76%	8.04%	9.02%	10.87%
Balance (cum.; UAH bn)	(36.38)	(47.97)	(0.90)	(10.39)	(8.22)	(23.43)

Debt Indicators4)
Total Public Debt ($bn)	51.09	54.29	56.42	60.17	58.38	59.22
External Public Debt ($bn)	32.37	34.76	36.13	38.23	38.00	37.47
Debt to IMF ($bn)	14.88	16.26	16.74	16.74	16.74	16.21

Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn)	216.73	225.69	223.52	228.14	234.35	239.89
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y)	18.03%	15.76%	13.67%	3.93%	8.13%	6.29%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn)	568.81	597.87	621.38	652.40	662.28	685.52
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y)	20.71%	22.69%	25.73%	22.29%	16.43%	14.66%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn)	720.43	724.01	743.16	765.00	792.91	793.28
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y)	(0.55%)	0.90%	6.71%	9.78%	10.06%	9.57%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn)	392.93	413.85	439.20	461.28	468.93	489.14
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y)	23.54%	26.27%	30.00%	26.78%	19.34%	18.19%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)	13.03%	13.63%	13.10%	14.00%	15.50%	17.20%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)	8.60%	7.63%	6.50%	6.40%	7.20%	11.10%

Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn)	0.29	(1.49)	0.50	(0.30)	(1.92)	(2.02)
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn)	34.68	34.58	36.43	37.58	34.95	31.80
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports)	5.68	5.67	4.46	4.60	4.28	3.89
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p)	7.94	7.96	7.98	7.99	8.00	8.04
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.)	7.91	7.96	7.96	7.99	8.00	8.02

Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Year	2009	2010	2011E	2012E*	2012E**
Real Sector
Real GDP (% y-o-y)	(14.80%)	4.20%	x	x	x
Household Consumption (% y-o-y)	(14.90%)	7.00%	x	x	x
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% y-o-y)	(50.50%)	4.90%	x	x	x
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)	913.00	1,095.00	x	x	x
Nominal GDP ($bn)	117.00	138.00	x	x	x
GDP per Capita (at F/X rate; $)	2,549.00	3,013.00	x	x	x
Real Industrial Output (% y-o-y)	(21.90%)	11.00%	x	x	x
Real Agricultural Output (% y-o-y)	(1.20%)	(1.50%)	x	x	x

Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)	12.30%	9.10%	x	x	x
Consumer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)	15.90%	9.40%	x	x	x
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)	14.30%	18.70%	x	x	x
Producer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)	6.50%	15.00%	x	x	x
GDP Deflator (% y-o-y)	13.00%	15.00%	x	x	x

External Sector
Current Account Balance ($bn)	(1.70)	(2.90)	x	x	x
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)	(1.50%)	(2.10%)	x	x	x
Merchandise Trade Balance ($bn)	(4.30)	(8.70)	x	x	x
Goods Exports (FOB; $bn)	40.40	52.20	x	x	x
Exports Growth (y-o-y; %)	(40.30%)	29.20%	x	x	x
Goods Imports (FOB; $bn)	44.70	60.90	x	x	x
Imports Growth (y-o-y; %)	(46.70%)	36.20%	x	x	x
Services Trade Balance ($bn)	2.40	5.00	x	x	x
Net Income Balance ($bn)	(2.40)	(2.00)	x	x	x
Net Current Transfers ($bn)	2.70	3.00	x	x	x
Capital and Financial Accounts Balance ($bn)	(12.00)	7.90	x	x	x
Net FDI Inflow ($bn)	4.70	5.80	x	x	x
Net FDI Inflow (% of GDP)			x	x	x
			x	x	x
Gross External Debt ($bn)	103.30	117.30	x	x	x
Gross External Debt (% of GDP)	88.20%	85.10%	x	x	x

Public Finances
Central Budget Revenues (% of GDP) 1), 3)	23.00%	23.50%	x	x	x
Central Budget Expenditures (% of GDP) 1), 3)	26.80%	27.90%	x	x	x
Central Budget Balance (% of GDP) 1), 3)	(3.90%)	(4.40%)	x	x	x
			x	x	x
General Government Balance (% of GDP) 2), 3)	(6.30%)	(5.70%)	x	x	x
Naftogaz Balance (% of GDP) 2), 3)	(2.50%)	(1.50%)	x	x	x
			x	x	x
Total Public Debt ($bn) 3)	39.80	54.30	x	x	x
Total Public Debt (% of GDP) 3)	34.80%	39.50%	x	x	x
External Public Debt ($bn) 3)	26.60	34.80	x	x	x
Debt to IMF ($bn) 3)	12.90	16.30	x	x	x

Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (% y-o-y)	4.40%	15.80%	x	x	x
Money Supply (M2, % y-o-y)	(5.40%)	23.10%	x	x	x
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)	20.90%	14.70%	x	x	x
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)	13.80%	10.10%	x	x	x
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn)	718.00	725.00	x	x	x
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y)	(2.20%)	1.00%	x	x	x
Total Credits (% of GDP)	78.60%	66.20%	x	x	x
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn)	328.00	414.20	x	x	x
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y)	(8.30%)	26.30%	x	x	x
Total Deposits (% of GDP)	35.90%	37.80%	x	x	x

Forex
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn)	26.50	34.60	x	x	x
Gross F/X Reserves (months of current year imports)	5.70	5.70	x	x	x
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p)	8.00	7.96	x	x	x
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.)	8.14	7.95	x	x	x

Notes: *new gas deal scenario; **current gas contract/no IMF funding scenario; 1) excluding social security funds, Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; 2) the general government balance includes the central and local budgets, Pension Fund and (2009 onwards) Naftogaz Ukrainy, but excludes bank rehabilitation costs; 3) SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics. Sources: SSC, Finance Ministry, NBU, Dragon Capital estimates and forecasts

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